Title: Will the Nifty 5400 Call (Oct 20) Move from ₹120 to ₹220? — A Deep Dive
English Version Title: Will the Nifty 5400 Call (Oct 20) Move from ₹120 to ₹220? — A Deep Dive Introduction Options are powerful but nuanced instruments. Your thesis — that the Nifty 5400 call option expiring Oct 20 may rise from around ₹120 to ₹220 — is aggressive and requires certain assumptions. In this blog, I’ll walk through the logic, scenarios, probabilities, risks, and key factors that could support or derail this view. My aim is to help readers understand not just the forecast but why and how one might arrive at it. What the View Means “Stay above ₹120” — you expect the option premium will not fall below ₹120 (i.e. the option remains in-the-money or sufficiently valued). Rising to ₹220 implies a near-doubling from ₹120, so you believe there’s strong upward momentum, volatility, and favorable time value left. Implicitly, you're betting that Nifty’s price will move upward strongly enough so that the option’s intrinsic + extrinsic value add up to ~₹220. Key Variab...
