English – Part 3Future Scenarios, Electoral Outcomes, and the Strategic Crossroads of Indian PoliticsScenario Mapping: What Could Happen NextAs political rhetoric increasingly intersects with identity, three broad scenarios may unfold in West Bengal and beyond. None are inevitable, but each is plausible depending on how political actors behave in the coming months.Scenario 1: Sustained Minority Re-Consolidation
English – Part 3 Future Scenarios, Electoral Outcomes, and the Strategic Crossroads of Indian Politics Scenario Mapping: What Could Happen Next As political rhetoric increasingly intersects with identity, three broad scenarios may unfold in West Bengal and beyond. None are inevitable, but each is plausible depending on how political actors behave in the coming months. Scenario 1: Sustained Minority Re-Consolidation If identity-linked rhetoric continues, Muslim voters—particularly those who had drifted toward alternative parties—may return to a single dominant political choice. This would not necessarily be an endorsement of governance performance, but rather a defensive electoral decision. In such a scenario: Electoral margins may widen in minority-dense constituencies Opposition gains could stall despite local anti-incumbency Leadership symbolism would outweigh administrative critique This outcome would most directly benefit leaders positioned as protectors of pluralism, s...